Governor Inslee just out a freeze on utility shut offs and evictions, got rid of the 1-week waiting period for unemployment benefits, expanded cash assistance for families, and introduced a small business loan.
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Oak Park, a suburbs literally right over the Chicago border on the west side, just announced shelter-in-place. Can go out for medical care, essential goods like food or meds or pet supplies, and outdoor exercise. Thatās it. Sounds similar to what the Bay Area did.
ETA: 2 other suburbs near there doing the same. I expect the city wonāt be far behind.
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but also 
because it sucks that this has to happen but itās good that theyāre issuing it.
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I just had another sobering thought:
A lot of people who are getting laid off or will be are going to lose health insurance. Right when they potentially really need it. Even if they qualify for Medicaid, in a lot of places it takes a couple of weeks to get enrolled. Or they can pay a lot for COBRA if theyāve got the money to do that.
This day is really bumming me. I see a good cry in my future.
Umm, Iām also not doing very well with tracking my time today. Which somehow feels like a comical thing to care about.
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nods nods nods
I guess I want to reassure folks that losing health insurance via leaving your job is one of the few things our labyrinthian system handles decently. Youāre covered through end of the month on your work plan, and then even for medicaid, your coverage is dated from the 1st of the month after you apply. It sucks for people losing progress on deductibles and such, but I suspect weāre going to do something on it.
Yāall, I keep having feelings where this feels overly dramatic, shutting the economy down like this, because the health effects havenāt been evident in my (immediate) community yet, but all Iām seeing is the economic effects. And Iām REALLY seeing them.
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Wellā¦first person I actually know to get COVID-19. In the UK, though, not here. NHS worker.
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One of our congressmen has been confirmed positive. There are 63 reported cases now (but not including him? I think?) but there was no testing today because our lovely earthquake shut down the state public health lab. So thatās fun.
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Looks like my state is reaching toward 100 confirmed cases, 4 in the city noted today, and several (too tired to look up) in my county.
Iām still working, but cancellations keep coming in, which I totally get.
I donāt actually want to be working and going in and out of folks homes (some ppl have been willing to hand off their pups or let them into the yard for me to leash up), but this is just how it is.
I have money in emergency and bucket savings, I am still making money - just less, I am very resourceful, and I have a kitchen full of food.
I took most of today away from the internet because I just needed to.
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Iām probably seeing far more of the health effects. Even though Iām not working right now, all my nursing school friends are. If youād like any views from that side, lemme know. I donāt want to make anyone feel panicky, but justā¦ healthcare workers are struggling. A lot.
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My state went from I think 53 to 110 in 2 or 3 days. Still none in my county, but my sister is in the worst one.
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Math.
Namely exponential math.
Cases are doubling every 2-3, maybe 4 days if we are lucky.
I just checked, 7700 confirmed cases in the US now (actually 7698). Probably more but lets roll with that number.
| Cycle | Cases |
|---|---|
| Now | 7,700 |
| 1 | 15,400 |
| 2 | 30,800 |
| 3 | 61,600 |
| 4 | 123,200 |
| 5 | 246,400 |
| 6 | 492,800 |
| 7 | 985,600 |
| 8 | 1,971,200 |
| 9 | 3,942,400 |
| 10 | 7,884,800 |
| 11 | 15,769,600 |
| 12 | 31,539,200 |
| 13 | 63,078,400 |
| 14 | 126,156,800 |
| 15 | 252,313,600 |
| 16 | 504,627,200 |
Number of doubling cycles in the first column, number of infected people in the US in the second.
There are 331 million people in this country.
Doing nothing, within 16 cycles, all are infected.
If a cycle is 2 days, thatās about a month.
If a cycle is 3 days, thatās about seven weeks.
No one is immune. We donāt have a vaccine or a treatment like a pill.
80% of those people will get better without treatment.
Some of the remaining will need medical care. Estimates Iāve seen are around 5-10% need ventilators.
The highest estimate of ventilators Iāve seen in this country is less than 200,000. Five percent of 331 million is over 16 million.
Thatās why I, and others, are freaking out and why leaders are willing to risk the economic havoc.
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I mean, I definitely get the math, and the stats. And following whatās happening in other communities feels very real and scary - but I havenāt see much as far as the health effects amongst my immediate community yet. But I do have more than 30% of my friends who have been laid off or might face their businesses closing.
I can definitely do the math. It just hasnāt set in as real today.
I had to lay someone off today, so that may factor into my mood.
I watched a video on South Koreaās response from the view of an everyday citizen and it was eye opening what you can do in a place like south korea.
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I hear you. There are a lot of economic impacts, no doubt. And more on the way.
Iāve never had to lay someone off. I know though that it canāt be easy.
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Keep in mind too the incubation time. People showing up sick now weāre infected 4-14+ days ago. Itās definitely starting to narrow in. Of my 150 women Nov due date moms group, we have two positive cases already (one in the south somewhere, one in South Korea). SirB has a friend here in town whoās work was just informed today their coworker is positive and in the hospital. The goal has been to slow the wave, but here in the next couple days itāll start hitting our immediate circles more here in Portland 
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This needs more views! 
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Had my first friend reach out about Medicaid today, her dad was just laid off due to COVID-19. I like feeling valued, but not like this. Not because people have lost their livelihoods.
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itās one thing to know itās going to get worse before it gets better. itās another thing to see it getting worse
I know the exponential math, but human brains are very bad at understanding non-linear things. It feels like I imagine a tsunami, where I have been watching it happen very slowly, and then itās happen to come very quickly (of course it has already happened very quickly, we just havenāt fully observed it yet), and I donāt think Iām prepared.
Anyways, that is my 4am, up since 230am, brain.
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Likeā¦
āOh, the horizonās a bit higher than normal? Thatās odd.
Oh, a wave!
OH ITāS CRASHING OVER THE ENTIRE CITY.ā
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Also we just went from āitās out there, but itās sort of fine in hereā to āthe invisible monster is now inside the creepy mansion with usā. First community transmission cases found today.
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@anomalily I have had to fire people many times in my day and itās truly an awful awful feeling. ::::distance hugs:::: Iām sorry.
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