I liked this framing a lot, and it made intuitive sense to me. The sad news is that we have to live with some risk now, and I don’t think this means that these epidemiologists don’t care about other people.
(Bracken not directed at you, just thinking about this)
Like in this article, every epidemiologist I’ve seen says that we’ll be living with COVID forever, and the implications of “the only acceptable level of COVID risk is zero” get really scary. If that’s the case, kids in cities in blue states will never go back to in-person school: is that a trade-off we’re comfortable making as a society? No visits to vulnerable people in nursing or care homes? No partners allowed with birthing parents at prenatal appointments? No more live music in indoor venues, big weddings, or indoor funerals? Never going back to big family holiday celebrations?
I don’t think traffic deaths are the right comparison point: I’m not an expert but I did watch my very handsome grad school classmate’s presentation on LA’s vision zero. It sounds like the ways they’ve tried to reduce traffic deaths slow down cars and are annoying, but don’t otherwise cause harm. Risk from the flu or Lyme disease might be better comparisons. My relative with lung issues still comes to family celebrations even though she could get the flu (before COVID). People still go hiking even though Lyme disease can be a pain.
I’ve seen a move away from the word “accidents” to “crashes” in news reports, signage, etc. Some of the reasoning I’ve heard is that accidents can be construed as unavoidable, minor or benign (The puppy had an accident in the living room ==> there’s a mess to clean up but no one is hurt) whereas crashes convey more severity.
I do think Covid is here to stay. I think we’ve managed to eradicate exactly one disease - small pox. I think even polio is still around in some areas. Measles has resurged here despite a vaccine being available for over 50 years. Unless the virus evolves its way out of existence (I’ve heard that happened to the 1918 flu, though I’m not sure - seems like at least some variants would stay around) I have little faith in the current human population’s ability to eradicate anything in this country, let alone around the globe.
We have eliminated 2 diseases actually! But one of them was for cows so it gets less press (Rinderpest).
When I think about risk tolerance going forward I definitely feel both “if this gets about as bad as flu then we know how to handle it” and “wow people really should have taken the flu more seriously all along.”
They might not be the perfect comparison but I want to point out that vision zero does not have no externalities: for example, if you do traffic calming you slow emergency vehicle response time. This level of throughput is already calculated in traffic engineering and it accepts a certain level of risk of crashes in order to accommodate certain level of traffic throughput. If you allow right turn on red, you increase risks for crashes between vehicles but reduce the interactions between pedestrians crossing and turning vehicles during green signals. If you add traffic calming on a highway, you can make lane change crashes happen with higher frequency. If people are left waiting for the bus longer due to slower traffic, they have higher risk from weather conditions or assault.
Essentially all decisions carry risk and negative and positive externalities. Same as covid going forward. The issue is who and how are we calculating and perceiving these risks. I perceive traffic as dangerous because I work in transporation, I am aware of the risks when I step out my door as someone who served on the High crash corridor committee for my street. Most of us know someone who has been affected by traffic violence, just like most of us know someone affected by covid- but we make different risk decisions based on our internal calculations. I do think the novel component of covid makes it scarier.
(Portland’s vision zero also includes gun and non traffic deaths on our roadways but that is something I know far less about .)
I think the novelty and the sheer quantity of coverage on COVID (understandable at first) compared to other risks colors things too. If there were constant news reports from every outlet on lyme disease, individuals who have it, how devastating it is, young people who get it, people who follow all the precautions who get it, and on and on to the same degree as there has been for COVID, I think the fear around it would grow exponentially. I honestly believe we’d see kids being forbidden to go near grass or trees and people tearing up lawns and replacing them with concrete.
The truth is most of us walk around totally unaware of lots of risks and mostly aware of those we have specific experience with or knowledge about.
I agree, and it’s interesting people have brought up Lyme disease… I live in the place it was first recognized and this year the ticks are just everywhere, almost every single time I go outside I get one on me. I was so looking forward to hiking this year, but I am really disinclined until it’s warm enough to wear shorts, so I can better monitor while hiking. A small part of me thinks maybe I am overreacting and being paranoid (because, after all, I grew up here, and though we worried about it (and it was worse then, because there really weren’t any treatments)), and I know that ticks need to be attached for a not-insignificant amount of time to transmit it, but in reality it is a very serious disease. I’ve been reading about people who have extreme difficulty getting diagnosed if they don’t get the characteristic bulls-eye (which doesn’t appear in all cases), and these people live with significant symptoms for months or even years before being able to get treatment. Obviously there are mitigation methods, but you are never going to be completely risk free here. Treating clothing with permethrin is the most effective at keeping them off your clothing, but it is toxic to cats (so I literally cannot). The Saresto collars that some people use in addition to ingested meds for dogs have apparently been linked to many dog deaths(!!!) You can treat your yard with chemicals… but that has other consequences (I won’t do that because I am on a well). You should have a partner do a tick check every day when they are active and if you go in likely areas, but, without a partner this is very difficult. Etc etc etc.
And here’s a fun fact I found while doing some research:
The more temperate conditions — and the growing deer population — have contributed to a sharp increase in deer ticks in Connecticut that carry Lyme disease, says the Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station. In 2019 testing of 3,517 blacklegged (deer) ticks, 35.7 percent carried Lyme disease.
Fun as in, oh dear, 35.7%.
Sorry, this thread is about covid, not Lyme, but the perceived difference in risk is astounding!
This is so true and frustrating. When I lived alone I was much more cautious about hiking bc of the difficulty doing tick checks.
Counterpoint to the shorts thing - I thought that wearing long pants made you less likely to get ticks in the first place? But maybe not sufficiently since you are in such a high tick area.
For me I think it is not helpful. I feel like things are crawling on me all the time and probably around 50% of the time I have found them on me they were on my legs, under my pants. At least with bare legs I would feel them and be able to check, rather than feel them and not be able to check.
Last year sucked because my sister is into “all natural” sprays that do jack, but I went along with it because, her house (also, they didn’t seem as bad last year?) But now I am DEET all the way. I know it’s poison, but it’s better than getting Lyme.
I haven’t heard of picardin, thanks! I will look into that.
Unfortunately I really can’t do permethrin because of the cats. I just don’t see how I could ensure they never came into contact with it, unless I stored the clothing in the shed and showered immediately after coming inside after wearing it. It would be ideal though.
Have a hiking only jumpsuit thing that would be coated externally with the permethrin that is put on and removed over your normal clothes when you get the the trailhead? It could live in a sealed ziploc bag in your hiking backpack when not worn.
Caveat, I do not hike and have no idea if this would be an option. But it worked when Husband did a rotation that got him into contact with some really nasty stuff that could have killed Luigi.
It would work to have a set of clothes for hiking - maybe I’ll think abut it!
It won’t work for every day when I go out to work in the yard though. I just… it would be a lot of effort and I would still worry that there might be transfer between the fabric and my skin, which would then get transferred to them. (I don’t know if this is actually possible, but I worry.)
(thread jacking a little) I have found picardin to be much more pleasant to use and much less hard on my outdoor gear. My usecase was for chiggers and mosquitoes, but even lower concentration picardin on inner clothing layers kept the chiggers off.
India’s covid cases are really bad right now, their system is overwhelmed. These numbers are likely underreported, as the number of dead in morgues in certain cities is much bigger than the reported #s
The country has descended into a tragedy of unprecedented proportions. Almost 1.6 million cases have been registered in a week, bringing total cases to more than 15 million. In the space of just 12 days, the Covid positivity rate doubled to 17%, while in Delhi it hit 30%. Hospitals across the country have filled to capacity but this time it is predominately the young taking up the beds; in Delhi, 65% of cases are under 40 years old.
From a good news perspective: India’s vaccine (Covaxin) has been showed to be effective in trials against the new indian “double mutant” strain of covid. India has already administered several million doses.
Also other good news: over 25% of the US population is now FULLY VACCINATED.
While it sucks to see how unequal the vaccine supplies have been around the world, mostly based on country’s wealth, it is still heartening to see the hardest hit country by deaths and cases (the US) to be getting vaccines out so quickly.
Any word on whether the vaccines administered in other countries are holding up against this variant?
Variants are so scary to me, since the spread is still mostly uncontrolled, just opening us up to so many mutations. I’m so baffled by the number of people who think this pandemic is just over because they are bored of it.
I’m with you on the DEET. Way better than the alternative.
I just don’t see how I could ensure they never came into contact with it, unless I stored the clothing in the shed and showered immediately after coming inside after wearing it. It would be ideal though.