Covid-19 discussion

meerkat · May 16, 2021, 1:14pm

One-third (8/23 when I stopped to count) of people at the grocery store were maskless this morning. About a third of my county is vaccinated. Somehow I don’t think there’s a perfect overlap between those two groups.

TC: When I went to check out there were two lanes with human cashiers (I prefer them to the self check outs), one was unmasked and one was masked with a masked bagger. I got in line, unloaded my stuff, and heard the bagger swap out with someone else. Turns out the new bagger wasn’t wearing a mask, harrumph. I was about to make a comment of “I chose your lane because you’re wearing a mask, thank you!” but didn’t when I saw the new bagger.

chaskavitch · May 16, 2021, 1:37pm

Our county ticker for “% population fully vaccinated” is moving at 0.1% a day now We’re at 60.4% of people >16 yrs old with at least 1 vaccine, 52.8% fully vaccinated. I guess at least people are still getting vaccinated?

Elle · May 16, 2021, 3:00pm

They are trying new things like a 36h vacation to help people with shift jobs get vaccines! Yayyy

Oro · May 16, 2021, 3:09pm

I’ve been having a lot of thoughts about my own reaction to the CDC new guidelines, along with our collective reactions here. I’m going to wax poetic for a minute.

I had a gut reaction of fear, followed by disbelief.

But the CDC is not responsible for states, counties, and community decisions, or decisions of individual people. The CDC is doing what the CDC does: making a recommendation for a group of people (fully vaccinated people) based on the science. That’s their job. They did it and are continuing to do it.

If I am a person who “followed the science” in the early days of the pandemic re: how to behave in ways that would make me and my community safe, then I can’t now be a person who DOESN’T follow the science simply because it “feels” wrong. I might choose to be more conservative on a personal level, that’s totally my choice. But the CDC and leading epidemiologists are saying this is okay for fully vaxxed people and I am going to trust them on that. Even if it’s scary.

I’ll be fully vaxxed on the 4th of June. Maybe by then I’ll be ready to do as they say.

That said, my county DOES still have a mask mandate. Which I’ll obviously follow.

I guess I’m just trying to remind folx that the CDC is not responsible for community decisions. Every community is different, as we’re learning from what people are posting here.
They’re just responsible for guidelines based on science. Which is what they’re doing.

meerkat · May 16, 2021, 3:32pm

I’ve been turning things over in my head and I think my WTF reaction at people at the grocery store this morning wasn’t fear based as much as being judgemental. I can’t find a picture right now, but that hand gesture I think of for New York taxi drivers (not the bird, the “WTF are you doing” palm up one) kind of conveys it.

Now my brain is trying to figure out how to redo The Nightmare Before Christmas’s “What’s this?” to “What the fuck?” even though the beats don’t quite work between those two phrases.

darlingpants · May 16, 2021, 4:39pm

The other thing that I’ve been thinking about: the CDC doesn’t really need to track or stop every single case of COVID. They’re interested in stopping death, hospitalization and disability from COVID, which the vaccine does astoundingly well.

I do still think they looked too much at the epidemiology and not enough at the social psychology, and it seriously sucks that they don’t have better guidelines for families with children under 12. Also I don’t really want work to stop requiring masks, especially because we have a ton of construction workers in and out. I dunno I’ve been extra sick of masks for about a week now, but the idea of going to work with a bare face is anxiety inducing.

Bracken_Joy · May 16, 2021, 6:40pm

But why can’t you just keep wearing a mask if it’s making you anxious? It seems to me like no longer requiring masks isn’t the same thing as banning masks?

darlingpants · May 16, 2021, 6:52pm

I can and I might. I guess what I should have said is I hope the various construction workers from 5 different companies doing HVAC/electricity/drywall etc keep wearing their masks. It’s a lot of different people every day and while I know most of my coworkers have both shots (people were comparing how to get appointments) I have no idea about the constriction crews.

The guys who are there most often are pretty good about it (very few noses even) but the electric company workers were noticeably worse, and everyone has started slipping more recently (hopefully because they are vaxxed, but again, I have no idea if that’s true).

Oro · May 16, 2021, 8:57pm

I think we are at the point in the pandemic here in the USA (with lowering cases and high access to vaccine) where it’s valuable to question our kneejerk judgement of others.

This pandemic has made us hyper-aware of other people at all times. It’s just a side-effect! But if I am fully vaccinated (or even partially) then honestly, whether or not you or your neighbor Billy is wearing a mask no longer is a risk to me. Obviously the equation changes if someone is with a higher risk person who can’t get vaxxed, but on the whole, our need to be hyper alert to other people’s decisions to protect ourselves is dwindling.

At the end of the day I can’t know if Billy isn’t wearing a mask because he’s an anti-vaxxer who refuses to believe COVID is real or if he’s a guy who got his vaccine in and is finally able to go to the fricking store without a mask and this is the happiest day of his life.

IDK.
This isn’t a response to anyone in particular, just me ruminating on the side effects of hyper-vigilance and judgement from this pandemic.
In my opinion all of that is based in fear. And it’s not a ridiculous fear. Being afraid (or whatever word you would like to use) was a Very Important part of staying safe for us. But once we’re vaccinated personally it’s going to be a struggle we all deal with to let go of that.

Bracken_Joy · May 16, 2021, 9:13pm

So my understanding might not have full depth, but from what I’ve read (ex https://yalehealth.yale.edu/yale-covid-19-vaccine-program/who-should-and-shouldnt-get-covid-19-vaccine )
it’s now ONLY people with known anaphylaxis to Covid 19 ingredients who are not recommended the vaccine, and children under 12. There’s the risk in immunocompromised people they may not form robust immune responses, but they are recommended the vaccine. And it’s really not a severe illness in children with no major underlying health issues. So it seems like we’re really down to a pretty small population subset who is still acutely vulnerable- basically medically fragile children and possibly infants, and perhaps someone immune compromised if they don’t form adequate antibodies to the vaccine.

So that’s definitely been a piece for me trying to step back from sweeping assumptions- with more vaccine access and fewer and fewer people excluded, we’re quickly approaching the area of someone’s own health choices mainly just effecting them I think.

Oro · May 16, 2021, 9:15pm

Which is why I still need to wait until mid June to see my nephew.

Oro · May 16, 2021, 9:17pm

Thanks for posting that, though. I trust your take on a lot of health/science stuff as you have a better understanding of the science than I do.

Bracken_Joy · May 16, 2021, 10:00pm

Yeah, I definitely don’t want to downplay the impact on vulnerable people. Just, that I can see variables shifting when you look at sheer number of folks at risk.

Marcela · May 17, 2021, 3:42am

Does that calculation change when considering an area that will never hit herd immunity or even majority vaccinated? I thought the whole point of herd immunity/mass vax campaigns is to ensure that community transmission slows down enough to make it so folks whose vaccines didn’t quite take or those who cannot receive it are covered. As someone who takes immunosuppressants and has also often been the weird medical shit lottery winner, I worry that I’ll be part of that 5% for whom the vaccine doesn’t work.

I just found out that at my husband’s clinic of 16 employees, he is the only one fully vaccinated. 1 other person has had one dose, we aren’t sure if they skipped the second or just haven’t done it yet. Folks are already clamouring for masks for go away and they are going to start having clients enter the building next week. Our area is listed as high transmission on the CDC website.

I don’t know what is valid, responsible concern and what is my own jerkbrain trying to anxiety trip me.

Bracken_Joy · May 17, 2021, 4:27am

Well, on point one be sure to have clarity about the meaning of the 95% efficacy.
“ If we vaccinated a population of 100 000 and protected 95% of them, that would leave 5000 individuals diseased over 3 months, which is almost the current overall COVID-19 case rate in the UK. Rather, a 95% vaccine efficacy means that instead of 1000 COVID-19 cases in a population of 100 000 without vaccine (from the placebo arm of the abovementioned trials, approximately 1% would be ill with COVID-19 and 99% would not) we would expect 50 cases (99·95% of the population is disease-free, at least for 3 months).” https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00075-X/fulltext
Plus the vaccines were completely effective at preventing severe disease right? So really as a vaccinated individual, it seems pretty overwhelmingly safe- that being said I think we’re still waiting on specific numbers for immune compromised individuals, BUT the couple headlines I’ve seen through medscape emails with oncology patients seems really promising? I haven’t dug into that really though and haven’t seen specifics.

Eta and to be clear I wasn’t saying you were misunderstanding, just that it’s a common one and an easy mistake to make so I wanted to clarify.

Marcela · May 17, 2021, 5:27am

That was super helpful actually! I was definitely thinking of it as the first example, not the second. Knowing the significantly lower risk now does make me breathe a little easier, at least as far as my husband’s situation goes. I’m not sure I’m ready to ditch the mask myself out in stores and so on because I do think that the purely scientific vaccine response guidelines are disregarding the social psychology aspect.

Basically it seems like we’ve decided the science says vaccinated folks are safe and so all lifesaving restrictions are lifted because if folks haven’t got a vaccine yet, fuck em.

Which doesn’t quite feel like the stance public health should take.

Meowkins · May 17, 2021, 2:52pm

I’m trying to keep convincing myself that letting my kid live his life now maskless is fine given his young age, but it is still really hard.

darlingpants · May 17, 2021, 2:56pm

Yes and no though? In the trials they were, in real life they’re very very VERY good but one fully vaccinated person with underlying conditions was hospitalized for COVID in Maine, and I assume the numbers are higher in places with larger populations and higher transmission.

ETA I know I being kind of paranoid but my severely immune compromised friend gets the flu shot every year, and most years she gets the flu and is aaaaalmost sick enough to get hospitalized. These vaccines are more effective than the flu vaccine, but 95% effective isn’t 100% effective. And I’m mad that just as her life might have begun opening up (she’s vaxxed, everyone around her is masked), she’s probably going to need to keep being a hermit for another few months while case rates decline.

anon51297825 · May 17, 2021, 3:24pm

I felt a lot better about it when most adults were masked. Now that they aren’t…I’m not feeling great about having my kids out in public.

anomalily · May 17, 2021, 4:03pm

So, I’m dealing with my own struggle right now of trying to feel comfortable with portland becoming “post-pandemic” in a weekend but I’ve been trusting the scientists all along, and I’m going to trust them now.

I’m also not criticizing anyone for feeling uncomfy because…well, I’m still wearing my own mask out and about despite being fully vaccinated. It provides a nice protective shield and they match my outfits. Also I am immunosuppressed and in the category of fully vaccinated people who are recommended to still wear masks.

From a communication standpoint, I don’t love how the CDC made this announcement, but from a science standpoint - they are literally doing their job. Their job is to prevent deaths and hospitalizations from infectious diseases by providing up to date research. They did that.

But also… healthy young people die from the flu every single year, even after being vaccinated. Everyone thought this pandemic was going to be an influenza pandemic.

The key element here: once you are vaccinated, you are dealing with a risk MUCH lower than the flu in an average year, based on the heaps of evidence we have for these vaccines. Even me, myself and I, someone who is immunosuppressed and less likely to form an antibody response, is likely to be as protected from severe illness, as I am from severe illness after a flu vaccine because these vaccines have such high efficacy thus far.

Will that stick?

but like…nothing is 100% effective. There is no medical science that is 100% effective. People still have sex with condoms (only 95% effective) despite HIV/AIDS being out there and having asymptomatic transmission. People still go out to clubs and bars and conferences in flu season - EVEN WITHOUT the 30-60% effective flu vaccine or anything close to herd immunity. Kids go to school after getting the chickenpox vaccine, which is only 90% effective, and when I was a kid, we went to school without a chickenpox vaccine.

And last but not least, people drive on highways every single day without thinking about it, which is far higher risk than the average post-vaccine adult wandering around maskless. Just like covid, you put other’s lives at risk when you operate a vehicle, and yet… we have accepted the risks because we feel that we have adequate protection (training, seatbelts, airbags). I personally think that we’re far too cavalier about the risks of traffic death and serious injury, but it’s worth understanding that life doesn’t come without risks and we’re very very lucky to live in rich countries that can afford to get us effective protection (vaccine) against the risk (covid).

Also do we have this whole same discussion in 6 months when we find out that we need a booster before much of the global south has even gotten their first dose? Ugh.