The Moderna vaccine after just one dose appears to be 63% at preventing asymptomatic covid. This is important for the vaccine’s role in preventing spread and helping us reach herd immunity. It was always possible that vaccinated people continue to get infected asymptomatically at the same rate, shed virus, and infect others. This doesn’t appear to be the case. 63% protection against asymptomatic infection is VERY good. And there could be a higher level of protection after the second dose, but I’m not sure if the study looked at that.
This vaccine is ~94% effective in protecting against symptomatic covid. I would say MUCH better than the flu vaccine.
A thought/opinion that may assuage some fear that we won’t be able to deal with the novel coronavirus in the long- or even medium- term, although in the short- term we just don’t know.
I spoilered this because it got long and a little winding, not necessarily because it is distressing
(Caveat - not a doctor or an engineer, this is what I have gleaned as an educated layperson, and the following is dumbed down a lot because I’m not an expert.):
Many people are familiar with Moore’s Law. If you’re not, Moore’s Law originally came from an engineer (and one of the founders of Intel) who predicted that the number of transistors on a computer chip would double every 2 years. This observation was made in the 1960s (pre-PC era). And this has proven to hold true - there has been exponential growth every 18-24 months since that time. This amount of technological advancement is astounding, and the idea of exponential growth has been extended to other areas as well, which is sometimes called the Law of Accelerating Returns (interesting, though old, essay linked). The first PCs came about in the 70s - they were extremely expensive and not many people could afford them (and if you are of a certain age you remember the old 5.25" floppies that held 100kB). We now have essentially pocket computers that weight a few ounces, hold GB of data, have incredible processing speed, and they are available to huge swaths of the population.
(Side - computers in their “modern” iteration did not even exist in 1918 during the last global pandemic of such a scale. While it might be comparable in some ways, our technological knowledge today as compared to then can’t even be considered apples to oranges, and it is this that we are pinning our hopes to.)
Medical research advances rely largely on technological advances. The degree of computing power we have today dwarfs what we had even 10 years ago. The easiest example I can think of is the Human Genome Project. It “started” in 1990 and “ended” in 2003 - it took 13 years and cost hundreds of millions of dollars. Before 2004 we didn’t have that much information about the human genome (just bits and pieces), and today gene mapping is a relatively common procedure (you can even have your own entire genome mapped for a few thousand dollars I think (for better or worse, only a few percent of identifiable “anomalies” are actually actionable at present)). The DNA sequencing technology used to sequence the human genome wasn’t even developed until the 80s, and then not even usable on a genome as large as the human genome until the late 90s (due to increasing computing power).
Gene mapping isn’t the same thing as virological research or immunology, but I think the general analogy still stands. Technology continues to advance at an incredible pace, and with advances in areas of research such as AI, quantum computing, Big Data, I think the future of medical research, including such areas as infectious disease, is quite bright. For example, the mRNA vaccine technology that is “new” is not new at all - it has been under development for decades - but this is the first big success (I suppose? I know it has been studied for other viruses like Zika). Future development of mRNA vaccines for both coronavirus as well as other illnesses is quite hopeful! At any rate, we might not have immediate answers, but a lot of really smart people are working on it, and we’ll get there!
Normally I am something of a pessimist and I am not so rah-rah cheerleader-y, but I really do think that there is great hope for the future.
I appreciate all of the comments here. I am far less pessimistic this morning.
It helped me to remember that there is a difference between the virus and Covid-19, which is the disease caused by the virus. The vaccines are for the disease, and being 95% effective is preventing severe disease is a huge step forward in such a short period of time. The long term effects are also part of the disease. It’s too early to tell, but hopefully the vaccine also prevents this aspect of the disease. And if they don’t, there will be improvements.
And whoever made the point about perhaps the lower dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine made people respond more to the coronavirus and less to the adenovirus vector, that also makes sense. Right now we don’t know if the Moderna or Pfizer vaccines suppress transmission, maybe they do.
I’m recanting my doomsday prediction and choosing instead to celebrate the progress that’s been made.
My big decision is going to be whether to go ahead with another frozen embryo transfer ASAP or wait and see if I can get vaccinated during spring. I work with the public, so I think I’m supposed to be in phase 2, spring.
So glad to see the order of populations to be vaccinated in my state place homeless folks and people in prisons/jail/detention facilities higher than a) essential workers in low risk settings and b) college students.
“ We expect that the Moderna vaccine-induced immunity would be protective against the variants recently described in the UK; we will be performing additional tests in the coming weeks," Moderna said.
So- testing is underway, but they do anticipate the vaccine to still be a match
Thanks for sharing! I hadn’t seen it but I spoke with my reproductive endocrinologist yesterday–the actual doc, who you don’t get to talk to very often–and she did mention that getting the vaccine while pregnant could be an option.
She didn’t think I should wait to do the transfer since there is no date on when I would be vaccinated. She said if I was successful and was interested in the vaccine, she would have me talk to my OB about it.
Yeah, ASRM released a statement:
“ Patients undergoing fertility treatment and pregnant patients should be encouraged to receive vaccination based on eligibility criteria. ”
So that’s the “official” fertility doctor group stance.
Poor husband is getting another brain-prod today. We just want to be abundantly cautious since he flew last week and had a couple other travel days, too. Alas, since it’s not symptom based our GP won’t do it, he has to go to a Walgreens 45 min away (only appointment available) and we have to pay like $120 for it. THIS is part of why our contact tracing was doomed from the start. Even though tests are more available now, it’s absolutely difficult and expensive to try and be mindfully cautious and get “just in case” tests. In retrospect, maybe we should have had him complain of headaches again we have a toddler that spends all day yelling, it wouldn’t even be a lie really
It still absolutely pisses me off that in Oregon, the vast majority of tests have been college athletes and the Trail Blazers (our basketball team). And we’re a state that’s doing relatively well.
My almost-ten-year-old has cold symptoms. I’m waiting on his rapid test. He’s not here with me–he’s in AZ.
I feel like a failure! I was trying to protect them from all germs. Where did he get exposed to germs? Is it because I forgot to make him put on hand sanitizer after he went to the bathroom in the gas station? (He said he washed his hands.) Did I bring home germs from work, even though I don’t have any symptoms and also I have been masking and disinfecting like mad?
we have a toddler that spends all day yelling, it wouldn’t even be a lie really 