20% of my county’s eligible active voting public has cast a ballot by the end of the first day of early voting.
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I just saw that for the next debate, the person who is not speaking will have their microphone muted.
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If anybody is a tech, policy or marketing wonk who is looking for relevant civic-minded volunteer opportunities, check this org out:
https://www.usdigitalresponse.org/
Government bodies can also request help from them.
A former grantee of mine was part of the team that helped the elections commission of a county in PA update their website and improve processes for voter registration and mail in ballots – saved the county $40k versus what private vendors had quoted them for the work, and they are getting 1000 hits a day (in a county with a population of just 160k) since the site went up:
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People living in Washington state who have been convicted of a felony, but who are no longer under Department of Corrections observation, are eligible to register to vote.
Voting records, voter registration status, and conviction records are public records. How would one go about reaching out to former felons to inform them of their voting rights and assist with voter registration? Or find an organization that does?
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Grassroots. Reach out to halfway houses, AA, NA, alanon. Ask a social worker or parole officer where high concentrations of former felons are.
Or, high tech. Have the public records crunched through, then cross-reference to last known address.
There’s got to be some national-level non-profit, too. Those are just my initial ideas.
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I would like to congratulate you all on such an excellent job with voting, it sounds like an impressive number have sent theirs in already.
I just read through the Guardian’s live debate blog, and I am very glad the moderator was permitted to turn off the microphones.
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Turning off the mics, paired with what I’m sure was Trump’s team begging him not to be a jerk, made it possible to actually hear what they were saying. Some of the sneers were epic, though.
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Anyone wonder if Trump might be under-polling because of people supporting him but ashamed to admit it?
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The Shy Torries argument. Yes, I do wonder. The morning of the 2016 election, Trump had a 13% probability of success, based partially on people who claimed being undecided.
We shall see.
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Though the polling is further apart this time
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Word.
Though, I think those who followed Nate Silver in 2016 had a nice reminder that low probability doesn’t mean impossible. Thems how damn lies and statistics work, eh?
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that… freaking…guy…
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It’s all so astonishing, innit!
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I thought FiveThirtyEight actually gave Trump more like a 30% chance on election eve 2016. Though because of Comey letter BS his chances improved pretty steeply very close to Election Day. The FiveThirtyEight podcast also talks at length about the “shy Trump voter” phenomenon — their conclusion generally is that there’s just no evidence that that is happening enough to make a difference in the context of a anonymous polls. And the lower number of undecided voters this year is a BIG difference.
People also have a really hard time conceptualizing odds. Say they give Trump a 15% chance on Monday evening Nov 2. If he wins that will be surprising but far from outside the realm of possibility. In a single evening of playing D&D, my chances of rolling a 1, 2, or 3 on the D20 at least once are pretty damn high. It hella sucks when it happens; there is much outrage and lamenting. But in hindsight it’s understood to be a fairly standard occurrence.
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Ah, you are right. A quick google shows it was 29%.
I think it was below 20% just a few days before though. It escalated quickly, iirc!
I thought this looked like a pretty cool break out of who has voted already. Florida has already had 34.3% of voters vote already.
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The party split on requested mail in ballots is wild too (looking especially at my — very important —state, PA).
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I saw a yard sign today that said “to whoever stole my signs, shame on you”. They had a bunch of signs, so they obviously replaced them.
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Sign stealing/defacing has been a huge issue in Portland for the Mayoral race, particularly defacing in support of a write-in candidate.
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